Notes: Fundamental problems, modified having clustering from the condition out of delivery, are given inside the parentheses

Notes: Fundamental problems, modified having clustering from the condition out of delivery, are given inside the parentheses

All regressions become dummy parameters to own census year, battle, age, county regarding beginning, and you will cohort away from delivery, and you will region of beginning style. Data try aggregated to state regarding beginning ? seasons out of beginning ? census year cell function in the first line, however, at the individual peak on escort service Roseville the IV regressions. Understand the cards to Desk step one .


Brand new IV quotes indicate that brand new causal aftereffects of very early adolescent wedding and dropout status for the future poverty try big. New baseline quotes mean that marrying younger escalates the possibility a good young bride can be for the poverty later in life by the as much as 30 commission circumstances. Losing from high school enjoys a relatively reduced, yet still ample, 11 payment part effect on coming poverty. These email address details are robust to the level from aggregation, LIML estimation, alterations to have migration, and you will a control mode approach. The person-peak OLS rates getting very early adolescent marriage try small, when you find yourself aggregated OLS prices give a price which is of the same magnitude since IV estimates.

To raised understand this this new IV and aggregated OLS rates disagree so much on private-top OLS estimates, I today mention the fresh new part from dimensions mistake. Into the census research, years initially matrimony is actually computed about stated time of basic matrimony and you may big date off delivery (day and you will seasons). Always singular person fills regarding the census function on entire family. That is planning worsen measurement error given that individual doing the census may not have appropriate factual statements about other home members’ schedules away from delivery and very first relationships. When you look at the 1970 and you will 1980, the fresh census form instructs individuals “promote your absolute best imagine” when either of these schedules try “unfamiliar.” 19

Once the fraction regarding early teenager marriage ceremonies is really so short, any mismeasurement regarding date of beginning or date of matrimony-both parameters familiar with create decades to start with matrimony-is likely to end up in an extremely high downwards prejudice inside the new OLS imagine of your early teen ount out of measurement error, the fresh improperly classified teenager brides normally outnumber the actual teen brides, resulting in large attenuation bias.

To higher comprehend the incidence out-of dimension mistake during the claimed times, think about the 1975 Federal Virility Survey (NFS). This was the fresh fifth during the some surveys used every five years to examine ily believe. This new interesting function of the survey into the 1975 is the fact that experts decided to reinterview a selected test of women from the 1970 survey. The reinterview test has dos,355 light ladies in their earliest marriage ceremonies who were continuously married, whose ages in the matrimony are lower than twenty five years, and you can whose husbands got been recently partnered only when. The 1975 and 1970 studies query go out out-of birth and you will go out off basic relationship, having both sets of responses being submitted from the 1975 take to. Very for this subset of females, I can assess a lowered bound into the misreports because of the researching the newest same female’s solutions more an effective four-season time views.

Misreporting fundamentally declines due to the fact a beneficial woman’s stated ount regarding error within the these types of most other organizations is smaller compared

Table 8 tabulates how many times the latest answers regarding 1975 survey do not satisfy the solutions regarding the 1970 survey. For the entire take to, dates regarding delivery don’t concur cuatro% of the time, and you may dates out-of relationship don’t concur a dozen% of time. As a result, one to a beneficial female’s decades from the relationship mentioned inside the ages does not align to possess 11% of the findings regarding sample. Mismatch pricing also are said from inside the Dining table 8 to own groupings oriented towards a beneficial woman’s claimed relationships age regarding 1970 survey. Of these marrying during the or beneath the ages of fifteen for the the fresh 1970 survey, 8% of delivery schedules and thirty five% regarding wedding times don’t line-up around the questionnaire age. Because of it group, 39% of the meant marriage decades differ along side surveys. The degree of aspect mistake about census will be even huge just like the 1975 NFS sampled simply ladies who had never ever separated along with females answer questions regarding on their own.

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